nintendo

Analysis: $1,000 PlayStation/Xbox Could Cut Sales 38% and Cost $3.4B by 2031

Ampere Analysis modeled a scenario where next-gen PlayStation and Xbox consoles launch in 2028 with a $1,000 price and found first-five-year unit sales would fall 38% versus the PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. That slower adoption would reduce revenue in the console games and services market by an estimated $3.4 billion by 2031. The analysis proposes three responses—delay launches, subsidize hardware and change monetization, or radically redesign hardware—to avoid the $1,000 outcome.

• Ampere Analysis modeled conventionally designed next-generation consoles (PlayStation 6 and Xbox Project Helix) launching in 2028 at a $1,000 price and projected a 38% drop in unit sales over the first five years compared with PS5/Xbox Series X|S.
• A $1,000 price point would shrink the console games and services market by about $3.4 billion by 2031 under Ampere's estimate.
• Three mitigation options were outlined: delay next-gen launches beyond end of 2028 and extend current console lifecycles; keep a 2028 release but lower consumer prices via heavier hardware subsidies, new monetization models, more aggressive digital content strategies, and optimized sales channels; or substantially innovate hardware form factor and use cases.
• Recent chip shortages have already driven multiple price increases for Switch 2, PS5, and Xbox Series X|S, and some PC handheld/console devices already exceed $1,000, increasing the plausibility of a $1,000 next-gen console price.